Model Dashboard
High-level model validation — bankroll growth, CLV, edge-tier ROI, strategy comparison, and backtested results.
LIVE POSTED PICKS
Tracked results from picks posted on the site before first pitch.
📊 Live results reflect posted picks only. Backtested validation is shown separately below.
Record
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Win Rate
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Picks Logged
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Last Updated
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$5,000 Bankroll Growth — Flat $100/bet (2%) vs. Half-Kelly · 2026 Season
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Cumulative P&L Curve — 2026 Season
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📈 Closing Line Value — Season Average
Last 30 picks shown · positive = market confirmed the pick
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Average CLV · all 2026 picks
CLV above 0% indicates genuine model edge — the market consistently moves toward our picks after they're posted.
📅 Monthly ROI — 2026 Season
Flat $100/bet · consistency matters as much as overall ROI
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ROI by Model Edge — Does Higher Confidence Pay Off?
Edge Tier Performance — 2026 Season
Higher model edge should produce higher ROI — this validates the model's probability estimates
TierBetsW–LWin%ROIUnits
Populates as picks settle.
Model vs. Naive Strategies — 2026 Season ▾
FairLine picks returned — ROI vs. approximately −4.0% for a naive flat-bet-every-game approach — a meaningful advantage driven by selectivity and edge. Picking only mispriced games beats the vig.
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Model ROI / Bet
−4.0%
Naive (Bet All) ROI
Naive estimate based on historical MLB vig drain (~−4% to −5% per game). Our model results are live 2026 data.
BACKTEST
Historical model validation using prior seasons. Not live betting results.
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Backtested Model Validation — Out-of-Sample 2022–2024 · Not Live Results
Improving Every Out-of-Sample Year
vs. −4.0% baseline (bet every game, full vig drain) · 7,359 games backtested
+10.4%
Sharpe Ratio
1.82
backtested · annualized
Brier Score
0.234
vs. 0.250 market
Max Drawdown
−12.4u
backtested
Edge Threshold
2%
min to post
All figures above are out-of-sample backtest results (2022–2024). Each year trained on prior seasons only — no lookahead bias. Live 2026 results appear in the sections above as picks settle.