Raw team strength, pitching, lineup, park, weather, and situational signals generate the baseline projection.
Market information stabilizes outputs and aligns with betting market run environments.
The final FairLine probability is compared against the no-vig Pinnacle probability to identify pricing gaps.
Only picks with ≥2% edge are posted.
Model
Dual-Poisson + log-odds
Calibration
Platt-scaled monthly
- Every pick is logged before first pitch — timestamps are immutable
- Results are never deleted after losses
- Closing-line value is tracked to verify edge holds to close
- Live results are reported separately from historical backtests
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
What is a fair line?
The theoretical price at which neither side has an edge — the true implied probability converted to American odds with no margin. FairLine computes this from its model probability.
How is edge calculated?
Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability (after removing the vig). FairLine only posts picks with at least 2% edge vs. Pinnacle's no-vig line.
Does past performance guarantee future results?
No. Sports betting involves risk and variance. The model identifies positive expected value — not certainty. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
⚠️ For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Must be 18+ and located in a legal jurisdiction. Bet responsibly.